Market Turbulence & Forecast
These are unprecedented times, with two recent (but unrelated) events having a disruptive impact on the global GDP and gas turbine market.
Gas Turbine World’s 10-year Market Forecast of global turbine sales has been updated to account for significant market turbulence, driven by these recent economic factors:
1) Failure of a Russian/Saudi oil production policy has resulted in oversupply, coupled with a dramatic downturn in demand, has driven the price of oil to an 18-year low of almost $20 per barrel, which threatens future shale bed fracking operations and LNG supply.
2) The global COVID-19 pandemic has temporarily shut down factories and entire industries with an adverse impact on global GDP growth, and significant reduction in energy demand.
Potential impact on GT Market
New unit orders during the next 2-3 years will be affected most directly, primarily due to delays in gas turbine project execution. Associated downturns in “Aftermarket” products and services should be impacted to a lesser degree by unplanned and emergency maintenance.
The timing of a recovery to ordinary market conditions depends highly on how quickly the two major market disturbances can be resolved. See the bar chart for projected reduction in Unit MW orders (as a percentage) versus ordinary market expectations.
Both the Baseline and Upside data in our annual Market Forecast apply to conventional market conditions. Our Downside annual forecast data for 2020 through 2022, however, does consider the disruptive impact of the virus pandemic and plunging oil price on the EPU and O&G sectors of the gas turbine market.
The 10-year Market Forecast is produced annually in partnership with McCoy Power and Dora Partners, leveraging 50-years of market intelligence and data sets from Gas Turbine World. The Market Forecast covers historical data, current orders, and future sales from OEMs who together comprise more than 95% of total gas turbine sales globally.
The Market Forecast is an essential tool for anyone looking to understand and model economic recovery, or involved in organizational growth and business planning. It is available now for purchase on our website, CLICK HERE