The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a shocking report on the state of global coal production. While Europe and North America have been “racked over the coals” about their record on emissions from fossil fuels, the rest of the world has driven coal burning to its highest-ever levels for three consecutive years – 2022, 2023, and now 2024.
China and India are the prime offenders. Combined, they burn more coal than the rest of the world combined. This makes a mockery of global campaigns to reduce emissions. Anyone serious about reducing emissions would be advised to go easier on Europe and the US (both of whom have achieved remarkable success in lowering their coal output). Instead, India and China need to be pressured into bringing about a serious reduction in their own usage of coal.
Without that happening, any environmental argument related to coal plant closures in the U.S. or the need to further lower emissions in natural gas plants. takes on a ridiculous aspect. The obvious way to lower emissions is to go after the biggest offenders, not continue to harass those already making headway in lowering pollution from coal and natural gas.
According to IEA, “Coal is often considered a fuel of the past, even though consumption has doubled in the past three decades, Global demand is set to reach a new all-time high in 2024 of 8.77 billion tonnes (Bt).
The power sector has been the main driver of coal demand growth, with electricity generation from coal set to reach an all-time high of 10 700 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024.”
IEA figures show that growing coal demand in China is expected to reach 4.9 Bt in 2024 and India is poised to increase over 5% to 1.3 Bt. China and India account for 6.2 Bt of the world total of 8.77 Bt. That’s 70.77%.
In the same report, the IEA complains that although coal demand continues to fall in the EU and U.S., the decline has slowed. It appears, from the report, that the IEA is soft on the biggest offenders and hard on the best performers in coal reduction.
“India is expected to see the largest increase in coal use in the coming years, driven by consumption from the power sector and industry. Still, as has been the case for 25 years, China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together, will continue to define global trends. Faster growth in electricity use in China is pushing up coal demand there,” said IEA.
Indonesia is in third spot, worldwide, with consumption soaring. Australia is set to become the fourth largest producer by 2027 (surpassing the United States and Russia). China, India, and ASEAN countries consumed three-quarters of total demand in 2024, a significant increase from around 35% at the start of the century.
China and India have no intention of slowing down coal production. China has been adding new coal plants at a faster rate than ever. India, too, added 4 GW of coal-fired power generation capacity in 2023 and a similar amount in 2024.
According to the Indian government, the country intends to add as much as 90 GW of new coal-fired capacity by 2032. That’s in addition to its current total of 215 GW of coal-fired generation capacity (India receives over 70% of its electricity from coal-fired generation).
Although this rampant coal usage goes unchecked, environmental groups in the U.S. go wild at any hint of a new natural gas plant or worse, the continued operation of a coal plant.
A few years ago, the City of LA cancelled a large investment in upgrades to its extensive fleet of gas turbine assets. The mayor said the money would be better spent on renewable assets.
By doing so, he condemned the city to continued use of aging turbines with much emissions higher than modern machines – but perhaps that was the point: To make natural gas turbines look bad.
One last data point. An Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) report has discovered that U.S. coal-fired power plants have $6.5 billion of unused coal inventory. Failing to burn it could be a factor in higher energy prices across the U.S.
Other factors inhibiting the burning of this coal are that renewable power is given priority on the grid, natural gas prices are relatively low, and government policy makes life difficult for coal plants to be economically viable.
At the very least, coal plants should be incentivized for retaining their stockpiles in the national interest. In the event of disrupting the natural gas pipeline network (such as hacking that recently shut down the east coast network) having a stockpile of coal on hand might keep the lights on across the nation.
Contemporary reasoning is that if the U.S. would only close more plants, global temperatures would cease rising. That will never happen, Not when the biggest offenders – India, China, Indonesia and other Asian countries — intend to burn far more coal in the years ahead than the US can ever take offline.
