Carbon capture is one of those areas of technology that has been floundered about for decades. A few pilot projects with heavy government funding existed, but industry  uptake has been slow.

Interest changed, however, with passage of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which provided funding for new  carbon capture projects which immediately attracted  investors and utilities – and interest in carbon capture surged.

In May of 2024 the EPA issued “New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from New, Modified, and Reconstructed Fossil Fuel-Fired Electric Generating Units”  which required plants  achieve a 90% carbon capture rate by 2035.

This opened the door to new technology innovation and investment. McKinsey a, consultant firm, predicted in mid-20024 that global investment in carbon removal capacity would amount to at least $100 billion and perhaps as much as $400 billion per year.

Power producers however were not enthusiastic over doubling CAPEX for a new build combined cycle plant to enable 90%capture. For older plants, carbon capture mandates could put some out of business due to the double whammy of having to invest heavily in carbon removal while operating in a grid environment where the facility is only producing power part time.

Everything changed in early 2025 when the new EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin, put the carbon capture ruling on the chopping block. The agency plans to loosen the existing requirements related to the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) and other pollutants from coal- and natural gas-fired power plants.

“These rules were designed to regulate coal, oil and gas out of existence,” said Zeldin. “Affordable, reliable electricity is key to the American dream and a natural byproduct of national energy dominance.”

It is well reported that the power generation sector is the second-biggest source of GHGs in the US, behind transportation. What is not so well reported though is that,  over the past 25 years. the power sector has made by far the biggest percentage of reduction in pollution in the U.S.

According to Zeldin, GHGs from U.S. power plants account for 3% of global GHG, down from 5.5 % in 2005. As a result, 24 carbon capture projects awarded Dept of Energy grants were recently cancelled. It is also expected that stricter Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rules from 2024 will be dialed back to 2015 levels.

Environmental groups are howling about the prospect of changes and campaigning against them. Their protests are likely to be ignored. The current administration is determined to provide a friendlier climate for the power generation and the oil and gas sectors.

The worry is what will happen in 2029. Ideally, some agreement can be reached on a strategy for the next 20 years. However, one side is intent on fulfilling net zero targets at the expense of American energy independence and consumer costs while the other favors affordability and energy security. It is difficult to see how a compromise can be reached soon.