The “Western Turbine Users Inc” conference is the largest independent organization of aeroderivative gas turbine owner/operators in the world. At its recent event in Long Beach, Mark Axford of Axford Turbine Consultants laid out the trends and drivers of gas turbine orders.
“Gas turbine MW orders were up 32% in 2024 with GE Vernova the market leader,” he said, “It’s turbine time”. Unit orders for the year were up, too, reaching close to 500 units worldwide.
Axford rattled through the more important trends and influences affecting the market – with artificial intelligence in the lead. Ai, which is setting the pace of the tech revolution, is creating the demand for hundreds of data processing centers to be built ASAP.
Each of data centers require huge amounts of new generating capacity. Typically. one Google search requires 0.3 watt-hours, whereas an AI search takes up 2.9 watt-hours. Result is that electric utilities like Georgia Power have been forced to make huge corrections to their load forecasts.
Energy transition or addition?
Axford said that the purported energy transition is a fallacy. Traditional fuels, like coal and wood, never went away. New energy sources may emerge, but those they replace will continue to be used for a considerable period. Coal, for example, will probably remain a major force worldwide for at least another 25 years.
“We need to export more LNG so India and other Asian markets can move away from coal, wood, and biomass,” said Axford. “In any case, there is no path to net zero by 2050. We are further away from that goal today than we were in 2022.”
He contrasted the previous U.S. administration’s Energy Secretary (who is quoted as saying that LNG would soon be seen in the rear view mirror} with the current secretary who is firmly behind natural gas and LNG.
Axford commented that saying “Drill, Baby, Drill,” is one thing — but executing it will be another. Courts, local opposition, and EPA rulings may get in the way. He called for rolling back EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding which labeled CO2 a greenhouse gas.
Another battleground will be cost. Combined cycle plants built in 2022 were going for less than $800 per kW. That price could go as high as $2,400 by 2030, he predicted, due to rising gas turbine, part, and labor costs. A surge in demand has also led to a three to-four year backlog in order fulfillment.
He noted that GE Vernova is expanding its Greenville, SC facility to boost manufacturing capacity from 55 heavy frame units per year to at least 70. But this won’t make much of a dent in the backlog. Gas turbine OEMs fear a bubble. Say they rise to the occasion, and double manufacturing capacity, they run the risk of building up expensive gas turbine stocks with no buyers.
Axford added that GE Vernova had a great first year of operation as a single energy entity. It gained about 80% of all advanced frame MW orders in 2024 (above 225 MW) and has an 85% market share among aeroderivatives. But competition awaits.
Beyond the other GT OEMs, there is plenty of competition. “Renewable energy, battery storage, and reciprocating engines are taking away turbine business,” warned Axford. “Wartsila recips, for example, are doing very well in the data center space.”
LNG and Nuclear
The pace of advance of U.S LNG has been nothing short of spectacular. The first shipment was in 2016. Now the U.S. leads the world in LNG and is expected to expand capacity by 80% by 2028.
Cheniere is ramping up capacity at its Sabine pass and Corpus Christi sites. Woodside Louisiana is expanding, too. They are both adding plenty of LM aero units.
Meanwhile, nuclear energy is staging a recovery. The Three Mile Island nuclear plant is being recommissioned, and small modular reactors (SMRs) are all the rage. The hope is that some of these SMRs can be online by early in the next decade.
Market Opportunities
Innovative companies are grabbing a mix of generation options to help serve soaring demand for power. ProEnergy, for example,has deployed close to 100 LM6000 gensets since 2009. Some were sold to utilities and IPPs while others are owned by its WattBridge subsidiary for peaking.
Dynamis offers trailer-mounted units which are doing well in the oil & gas industry where oil drilling sites might move every 30 days. The company’s DT35 unit with an LM2500+ inside is doing well. So far, 28 units are operating.
Relevant Power Solutions is also building mobile genset in trailers powered by either LM2500 or LM6000 aeroderivative gas turbines. Five more of these units should be online later this year.
Forecast for 2025
Overall, Axford predicts, gas turbine MW orders will be up again this year which will mark a five-year upsurge in the industry.
“We had a 32% jump in gas turbine orders in 2024 and should see an uptick of 7 to 10% in 2025,” he said.
For the latest details on the gas turbine market, download the Gas Turbine World “Annual Gas Turbine Forecast.”
