Last year (2025) saw the first signs of a reversal and renaissance in a declining gas turbine marketplace after more than a decade of eroding performance. Achieved by soaring orders, massive equipment backlogs, slots reserved to 2030 and beyond, and data centers – all in desperate need of gas turbine electric power capacity as more massive AI data centers were announced.
How will 2026 fare in comparison? Installed capacity for the year, as well as orders for new units, should go through the roof and make 2026 another banner year. It’s what will occur during the following years that is up for grabs.
Gas turbine OEMs have taken significant steps to respond to heightened demand. The question is whether it will be enough to make sure orders continue in a high range for many years to come? The big guns like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook have all ordered gas turbines. Some have voiced worry about the lengthening timeline for delivery. They are already hedging their bets on gas engines, nuclear energy, and renewables.
Prediction 1: Gas engines will gain a significant slice of the smaller gas turbine market in 2026 (below 100 MW).
Prediction 2: Gas turbine OEMs will be forced to reconfigure their manufacturing plants (or build new ones fast) to enable them to produce more smaller and mid-sized turbines at the pace demanded by the market. Or largely concede this territory to gas engines and focus on their largest models.
Prediction 3: The supply chain will get ugly. There aren’t enough parts, casings, castings, blades, and raw materials to go around right now. Expect aggressive acquisitions to capture exclusive access from certain suppliers for specific parts and equipment. More partnerships are also likely to be formed between OEMs and their suppliers as part of an overall supply chain revamp and acceleration.
Prediction 4: The big OEMs may be forced to invest in their supply chain partners to enable them to expand capacity.
Prediction 5: More coal plant closings will be postponed. Coal was supposed to be gone by now – or at the most by 2030. But the end of 2025 saw several coal plants given a stay of execution. Several more will be extended in 2026 due to a surge in demand.
Prediction 6: Enthusiasm for nuclear energy will hit the wall. Small modular reactors (SMRs) were supposed to be the bright new hope. The last year or two has seen unbridled enthusiasm for them.
Plenty of development work is ongoing. However. this technology is in the early stages and has probably now surpassed the peak of inflated expectations. What follows is a steady descent into what Gartner.an analyst firm, calls the trough of disillusionment.
This is when the inevitable teething problems and necessity to organize supply chains, production lines, and a trained workforce catch up with any new technology. We might see an SMR or two by the end of the decade. But they won’t be produced in the volume the market demands – if they prove to be a possible means of generation – until well into the next decade.
As for reopening shuttered nuclear plants: again, this will take many years and has major hurdles to overcome – trained labor, supply chain, and thorny issue of local acceptance. Remember that nuclear energy was hated by the environmentalists as little as five years ago. A subtle relabeling as clean renewable energy won’t be enough to insulate it from a NIMBY backlash. Nuclear energy is generally more acceptable as an idea by the public. But when a new plant is announced beside YOUR town, opinions may shift quickly.
Prediction 7: Data centers and AI will propel energy demands to new heights. The AI boom will persist for another year or two at least. That means a steady diet of large data center announcements.
Today’s new generation of facilities require 1 GW or more of unit capacity. With many areas short of power on the grid, their development plans require access to firm, reliable power. This market is perfect for gas turbines – if OEMs are nimble enough to respond with speed.
As for background noise that the AI honeymoon is over – unlikely. The bid for market dominance and an arms race with China will continue to propel AI investment.
Prediction 8: Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and waste heat recovery systems will become inherent in many new data center projects. Data centers are being accused of using too much water and taking power from an already stressed grid.
As a result, developers are being forced to consider these factors for new project requirements. Instead of what data centers need from a local area, the equation hes changed to what the data center can do for the community.
A brief construction boom and relatively few jobs won’t be enough. Developers must figure out how to make electricity prices lower for their area (perhaps by adding more turbines than the facility needs).
Or by implementing CHP to provide cheap or even free district heat to an adjoining town, or even steam for nearby industrial users that employee many locals. Waste heat innovation will steadily increase facility efficiency and processes.
